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purple hayes
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 Posted: 03/28/05 - 14:20 Post subject: race calculator accuracy
I'm using the McMillan Running calculator to predict a race time.
http://mcmillanrunning.com/Running%20University/Article%201/calculator4.htm
If I punch in an 18:30 5K, I get a 1:04:24 for a 10 mile race. Is that reasonably accurate? I've got an upcoming 10 mile race in June and I need to know about what pace to shoot for. I haven't raced anything longer than a 4 mile run leg in a duathlon since 2001.
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xsPrINT_old
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 14:37 Post subject:
I think it is reasonably accurate as long as the distances you are measuring are within a couple of spaces of each other. Also, putting in a time for anything lower than 400 does NOT work well.
I put in 61 seconds for the 400 and my mile time supposedly should be 4:57. My best mile is 5:20 and I KNOW that my endurance is better than my speed.
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TriBob
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 15:18 Post subject:
It also helps if the courses are similar (i.e. hills).
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MechEngDropout
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 16:10 Post subject:
How's your long runs?
My guess is that if you're doing mostly shorter races, that's your emphasis in training. Therefore, you should tack some extra time onto that prediction. 6:26 seems quite fast for a 10 miler considering your last 5k (though admittedly a "tune-up") was at a 6:22 pace.
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TimRuns
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 18:00 Post subject:
It's only a prediction assuming that you have trained for it. If you are lacking in endurance required in running long races, then the prediction may not be accurate based on your current fitness level. Also like what others said there are other factors that may affect your performance (e.g. weather, the course, hydration/nutrition, etc...).
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spongebob
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 18:44 Post subject:
How fast was your last 10 mile training run and how did you feel?
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jrjo
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Posted: 03/28/05 - 23:47 Post subject:
| TimRuns wrote: | | It's only a prediction assuming that you have trained for it. |
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purple hayes
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Posted: 03/29/05 - 09:36 Post subject:
| Runner X wrote: | | How fast was your last 10 mile training run and how did you feel? |
I usually do 12 miles at ~7:45 pace and it's relatively easy and recovery is quick.
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spongebob
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Posted: 03/29/05 - 12:14 Post subject:
| purple hayes wrote: |
I usually do 12 miles at ~7:45 pace and it's relatively easy and recovery is quick. |
If you do the 12 miles outside on the road, then the calculator is probably going to be pretty accurate. Race day conditions not included.
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copteacher
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Posted: 04/02/05 - 03:07 Post subject:
does it take into account I wonder the differing paces for different length races.
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christa0120
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Posted: 04/13/05 - 07:04 Post subject: Re: race calculator accuracy
[quote="purple hayes"]I'm using the McMillan Running calculator to predict a race time.
quote]
I have used that one and it predicted my 5k within 1 second and my half within 2 minutes...I am hooping it is way off for my marathon though!
4:51 just sounds sooooooo long to run...LOL
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AlexFilides
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Posted: 04/23/05 - 01:28 Post subject:
In all honesty, I think one would be able to create their own running calculators. There is no one race equivalency calculator that works for everyone, including McMillan, RunningTimes, RunnersWorld etc.
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