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scorch99
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 Posted: 11/28/03 - 09:31 Post subject:
From Reality News Online 11/27/2003
Strategic Overview of Survivor: The Biggest Liar?
by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 11/27/2003
SOS! Who got away with the biggest deception in this episode? There are so many possibilities, but Professor Sadow says it’s not the one you’re probably thinking of. How on Earth did Burton manage to salvage his position in the game? And who is likely in the final three?
So, who got away with the biggest deception of this episode of Survivor? Was it Sandra when she deflected blame of losing fish to Christa without anyone knowing that she really had tossed their food? Or was it Jon when he fooled everybody into thinking of him sympathetically in their belief that his grandmother had died when she was really alive and kicking?
No, the biggest one was Burton preventing enough people from thinking that he should get the boot next. He had opened himself up to getting tossed as a result of bad timing in choice of people to boot. Six days previous, instead of sending off Christa or Sandra, he busted the wrong triad by evicting Ryan. This was an error because everybody except apparently Sandra and Christa was willing to send off Rupert at the next opportunity, and while he would be weakened by sending one of his women, the consensus would remain among the others that Rupert would have to go. As long as Rupert remained, Burton would be safe if he had a bloc of suballiances around him.
Then with Rupert gone later, Burton could take Lillian, Jon, and the surviving ex-Drake female to Pagong the ex-Morgans (or, at five left, to peel of one of the ex-Morgan, probably Darrah, and evict the last ex-Drake female) to the final four, giving him an unimpeachable advantage by holding a pair (himself and Lillian) against two singletons (of which one singleton, Jon, would feel compelled to stay with him since that means carrying Lillian, perhaps the only person he could beat facing the jury). Instead, he created a situation of three dyads and a singleton, where he could be defeated if the other two dyads combined forces.
His mission this episode was simple, to not allow that to happen. And it didn’t, thanks in large part to Jon’s smooth talking, from what we were shown. Idiotically, Christa, Sandra, Tijuana, and Darrah failed to pull the trigger on Burton, in large part because Jon seemed to convince Sandra and Christa their chances were better by voting off by booting Tijuana. Jon, of course, needs Burton to carry him and Lillian to the final three where he has a chance to arrange Burton’s ouster and thus ensure his only shot at winning.
Why Christa and Sandra would go for that seems odd. If they unite now with Darrah, the best they can do is the Purple Rock o’ Death against Burton, Lillian, and Jon. Do they really think Jon would abandon the chance of going up against an Outcast, against whom the jury may be prejudiced, in favor of against them when whichever of them he faced already would have two votes in hand? More likely, Darrah will save herself by rejecting this lineup and off go the ex-Drake women.
Or maybe Sandra could manipulate her way further? From what we saw this episode, her apparently strange vote last time not consistent with her alliance looks more likely to be, as I suggested last column, a clever way to ensure Rupert’s demise without threatening her own position. With her seemingly reflexive shunting of the fish story off her onto Christa, this is more evidence to show that such guile is not likely a one-off occurrence. Recall her strategic move days ago in preserving her alliance by providing timely information to Rupert, and this time in her sneakiness in trying to get Darrah and Tijuana to unite against Burton, even if she eventually cancelled this move. In light of this evidence, the conjecture that she is far more cunning than she lets on becomes very credible.
She may have the ability to secretly sell out Christa, then jockey to remove Darrah and, once in the final four, who knows? But what would she gain by letting Burton off the hook and then having to weasel her way to a jury vote? Until that becomes clearer, it’s difficult to say that she is a master tactician.
While many readers may cringe at the next few words, it’s getting easier to assume that about Jon. By pulling off Tijuana’s exit, as well as his baseball’s-opening-day deception (which is getting off work to see the first game of the season by claiming a grandparent is dead), Jon, even if he is a jerk, is starting to prove that he can play this game well – potentially, even better than past self-proclaimed “puppetmasters.” Like it or not, only an unusual series of events now can keep him from going to the final three.
His (and Burton’s, and Lillian’s) mission now is simple – bust the other dyad, pick off one of the other survivors from the dyads, and hope that the remaining of them does not win immunity when the cut goes from four to three. Their next target should be Christa, unless she wins immunity, in which case it should be Sandra (although, for reasons stated above, maybe the order should be reversed). Immunity challenge results willing, Jon then hopes to see Darrah go. His best outcome then would be for him to win the last immunity and to take Lillian to the jury; the only way he won’t go there is if Burton or Lillian let loyalty get in the way of common sense and send Jon packing if he doesn’t win the last challenge.
By many web polls, Jon is the least liked member of the cast. Many other viewers are not keen on Burton or Lillian simply because they are Outcasts. But, barring unlikely immunity challenge results, one of these three will win the game, and largely because others will have let them.
So I end up repeating myself from past columns. What were they (Christa, Sandra) thinking? And, when you have a knife at the throat of your fiercest enemy…
Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among other things, classes in international politics, international organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area of gaming simulations in international politics.
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scorch99
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Joined: 09 Oct 2003
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Posted: 11/28/03 - 09:41 Post subject:
Here's a recap from Reality News Online.
http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=4&article=article3857.art&page=1
here's some comments from a few message boards:
Ugh. Sandra - way to stick with your buddy Christa. And Jon? I have no words. Just when I started to like him for playing the game and he pulls that despicable stunt.
Glad Burton got to stay, but will miss Tijuana. And Rupert wore pants to TC but still has the hippie tank top. Hee.
ETA When Jon says "I swear on my grandma..." really... DON'T trust him!
Nana?
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Jon and his friend flip lied about his grandmother dying. Jon and friend got to spend 24 hours alone together, since the others let Jon win the reward challenge. Jon should rot in hell for this.
Oh, and Tijuana was voted off the Island. Also, Sandra's in Harpy Mode, but I like her more than Jon.
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All around excellent episode, but the line that made me LOL: Darrah to her boyfriend, "We need to taaaawk when I geeehht hoooome." (after he put that her career aspiration was "nurse." nurse?! from mortician?!)
Jon has set all new records for morally reprehensible behavior. And Sandra's throwing out all the fish gives him a run for his money.
tonypitt
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My throat now hurts from screaming at my television set for the past hour. Oh, how this season has frustrated me. Sandra, girl, I love you, but damnit, you're an idiot for listening to Jon and Burton and voting off Tijuana. And the fish? Good job, amazing show of loyalty to Christa. Jon is an evil, evil bastage, and if he pulls this thing off, my anger will be even beyond how pissed I was last season when Jenna won. Grr...
Jon fury aside, that was a truly awesome episode. One of the all time greatest, for my money, and definitely the most gripping so far this season. Just when we thought we'd seen it all...
Does Jeff know about Jon's lie? I would assume he does, but then why didn't he at least hint at it at tribal council?
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Not just one lie, but two! I was feeling ripped off about how quickly the fish fervor died down (though I felt really bad for Christa) and was all, "What? This is the big lie? THIS?" and then they brought out Jon's whopper. Ugh. I wished him dead, a number of times, aloud. And meant it.
Jon is is assiest ass who ever assed. I really can't find words enough to describe how much he disgusts me. Likewise his grody friend.
I've been holding off on my hatred for Sandra despite her permanent bitchface, but I give up. Enough. flip her.
Someone ought to step in and tell Burton's mom to stop with the eyelifts. If she keeps it up, she really will have eyes in the back of her head.
Mr. Puckish does a great impression of Lil's hubby's flailing arms. What, the man has rubber bones?
I'm happy to say I caught the liaison error before it came up in the show. Also noted that Jon misspelled "sandal." Is it wrong to delight in their misspellings?
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All I can say is this: If it is true that the other players never knew about this until tonight, when the show aired, I can only imagine the expletives that were hurled at Jon! I would be SO PISSED!! Especially Sandra and Christie, who gave up what could be their only chance at getting rid of Burton because they believed Jon. I'll bet they are livid. Can't wait for the reunion show.
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what bothers me most about the lie is how MB allowed jon to get away with it by actively keeping jon's friend away from everyone else. either they go to camp or go off someplace privately. the reward was also a punishment for everyone else in the tribe.
I'm not sure what's going on with Christa and Sandra. they had a chance to get burton out, and they let Jon, JON talk them into something else and it only worked because they felt sorry for him.
if jon wins the million he better spend it on security cause someone will shoot his ass in the eye for that stunt.
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I liked it. TWO big lies for the price of one! First Sandra sabotages the food supply and does not speak up when Christa gets blamed, then she even mentions it during TC so that Jeff can paint the target on her buddy's back for her. Then Jon wins the reward on the strength of a pre-planned lie his friend pitched in for whereby they convince the others that his grandma died at home. The survivor players will be pissed on both counts when they see this ep. I think for all Sandra's whining about how deceitful Jon is, she is the most sneaky player ever. She follows people around, lurks in the bushes and sabotages. Die, Sandra.
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I won't be home and I didn't set the vcr....
I know!!!! Maybe I can run home at lunch...
