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coachmarkos
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 Posted: 09/01/04 - 13:47 Post subject: Interesting note on polls...
Yesterday, I was reading the recap of the Repub convention, and it had a poll, who would you vote for, so I clicked on it, and the results had Kerry ahead of Bush by about 5%.
So, today I read about last night's events, and I click again, and now Bush is ahead by 10%.
Now, although this shouldn't be too surprising, since mostly republicans would read about the republican convention. A swing of 15% did surprise me in basically 24 hours.
I also know that internet polls are way, way off...but...
when I taught Government there was some discussion in the textbook, and we discussed it as a class about how much polls can/do influence the opinions of voters.
For instance...if a candidate is way behind in the polls, most voters dismiss them, even if they represent their ideas. So...just thought I'd open this up for discussion. What's your take?
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copteacher
Adjunct
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 13:52 Post subject:
only one poll I pay attention too. It is in November.
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gretriever
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 13:58 Post subject:
A general expectation of pollsters is that a candidate will get a bounce upward in the polls with, and immediately after, their convention.
It appears to be the consensus of said pollsters, as well as political analysts (and we all know what the first half of that word is), that Kerry did not get as much a bounce as expected, and it did not last as long, either.
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Gogirlgo
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 13:59 Post subject:
I'm not sure how polls done beforehand help anything. I do think they bias people.
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Sahara
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:05 Post subject: Re: Interesting note on polls...
| coachmarkos wrote: |
For instance...if a candidate is way behind in the polls, most voters dismiss them, even if they represent their ideas. So...just thought I'd open this up for discussion. What's your take? |
A thinking man you are!
My take = no one wants to identify with a loser even if said loser most closely represents their views.
So perhaps polls don't necessarily help the forerunner but they do hurt those who are not winning (or at least not a top contender).
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RexRacer
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:05 Post subject:
Internet polls are pretty volatile. The Newsweek one has consistently shown Kerry with a much larger portion of the electorate than he will likely win by  and I think of that as a pretty mainstream publication.
Nevertheless, since we vote by state nationwide polls are virtually meaningless--state-by-state breakdowns are what the campaigns are looking at and so should we.
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Sahara
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:10 Post subject:
I should have added that I too think Internet polls are horribly skewed because of the pool from which the sample is taken. Intro to Probably & Statistics and Marketing 101 teaches that. Those statistics can better be called marketing bites.
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jrjo
Gone Fishin
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:12 Post subject: Re: Interesting note on polls...
| coachmarkos wrote: | So, today I read about last night's events, and I click again, and now Bush is ahead by 10%.
Now, although this shouldn't be too surprising, since mostly republicans would read about the republican convention. A swing of 15% did surprise me in basically 24 hours. |
Just goes to show.. a couple more days and he'll have this thing locked up, 99 to 1. 
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:36 Post subject:
Here is a link to what I consider a very reliable poll. Actually, it is people placing bets on who will win the race, state by state. It works like the stock market with a bid/ask price system.
I know more about polling than sometimes I wish I did, and the gamblers are usually dead on.
A poll is a snapshot of voter's preference. Even the best of polls are wrong at least one out of 10 times, but a poll from Gallup is considered the "gold standard" of polling. Anyway, here is the link. Look on the right hand side of the page and go to US Presdential Elections Bush State by State.
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jrjo
Gone Fishin
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:40 Post subject:
Alan.. what are the legalities on bookmaking like that? I always thought those kinda things weren't okay outside of Vegas and Atlantic City.
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:42 Post subject:
| jrjo wrote: | | Alan.. what are the legalities on bookmaking like that? I always thought those kinda things weren't okay outside of Vegas and Atlantic City. |
I think the laws govering this sort of thing in, say, the Cayman Islands, are pretty liberal. And these betting outfits are all located off shore.
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jrjo
Gone Fishin
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:44 Post subject:
| AlaninTX wrote: | | jrjo wrote: | | Alan.. what are the legalities on bookmaking like that? I always thought those kinda things weren't okay outside of Vegas and Atlantic City. |
I think the laws govering this sort of thing in, say, the Cayman Islands, are pretty liberal. And these betting outfits are all located off shore. |
Whoa... so I could set up an account, create a line on something riff-raff related and start takin' bets? Hmmmm....... 
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Sahara
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:45 Post subject:
| AlaninTX wrote: | | Here is a link to what I consider a very reliable poll. |
holy moly
That's quite a site.
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genie
Master of Prissface
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 14:47 Post subject:
| Gogirlgo wrote: | | I'm not sure how polls done beforehand help anything. I do think they bias people. |
Do you think that is part of their function, from a propaganda standpoint? "If it sounds like so and so is winning overall, then I guess I should vote that way too", like Sahara said....no one wants to ID with a loser. ??
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RexRacer
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:08 Post subject:
I think John Zogby runs a pretty solid polling operation, too. His news site, where you can find alot more than just pres polling numbers plus his analysis, is at:
http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm
I think Zogby got big fame in 2000 for being the only noteworthy pollster to call the pres election correctly.
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