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Pug
The Movie Geek
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 Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:15 Post subject:
| jrjo wrote: | | Alan.. what are the legalities on bookmaking like that? I always thought those kinda things weren't okay outside of Vegas and Atlantic City. |
I had thought that betting on a presidential election is not legal in the United States. It is in England, however (the Brits apparently will bet on anything)
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:18 Post subject:
| RexRacer wrote: | I think John Zogby runs a pretty solid polling operation, too. His news site, where you can find alot more than just pres polling numbers plus his analysis, is at:
http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm
I think Zogby got big fame in 2000 for being the only noteworthy pollster to call the pres election correctly. |
Zogby polls are good, but they are email polls. In the polling world there is a question as to the validity of the responses as opposed to telephone polls. I cannot argue it either way, as Zogby is fairly accurate. However, in 2000 he was wrong on 5 states.
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:24 Post subject:
| Pug wrote: | | jrjo wrote: | | Alan.. what are the legalities on bookmaking like that? I always thought those kinda things weren't okay outside of Vegas and Atlantic City. |
I had thought that betting on a presidential election is not legal in the United States. It is in England, however (the Brits apparently will bet on anything) |
The grandaddy of political betting is the Iowa Political Stock Market (now called the Iowa Electronic Markets), run via the University of Iowa. You are not really "betting" on the outcome, rather buying futures on candidates and the outcome of the race. It seems like a small distinction, but the difference is the "house" is not setting odds and not collecting any of the "vig." Rather, they collect a small portion of all the bid/ask transactions. This makes it legal. Here is the link to the Univ. of Iowa market.
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copteacher
Adjunct
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:26 Post subject:
wow Alan, this is good stuff.
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:32 Post subject:
| rtpd113 wrote: | | wow Alan, this is good stuff. |
I told you I know more about all of this than is probably healthy 
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copteacher
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:33 Post subject:
good. But you are a nice authority for someone like me. You just unleashed a monster for me to get stuff off of you now.
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AlaninTX
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:41 Post subject:
| rtpd113 wrote: | | good. But you are a nice authority for someone like me. You just unleashed a monster for me to get stuff off of you now. |
Go Here
and
Go Here
If you want to read a good history of the Electoral College and the arguements for and against it, I very highly recommend reading this.
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Ms. Jenn
Fresh, Hot & Wild
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 15:57 Post subject:
| rtpd113 wrote: | | only one poll I pay attention too. It is in November. |
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megawill
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 16:03 Post subject:
interesting stuff alan...the university of iowa futures market has been very accurate in the past, interesting to see that they are calling it a dead heat as of now...i think the debates will be key this year...both candidates do a lot better in debates than most in their opposing parties will give them credit for...
i can tell you that if bush wins iowa, he will win the election...can't say that the inverse is true about kerry...
although despite the polls i still think bush is not likely to win here...
---
megawill
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copteacher
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Posted: 09/01/04 - 17:08 Post subject:
| AlaninTX wrote: | | rtpd113 wrote: | | good. But you are a nice authority for someone like me. You just unleashed a monster for me to get stuff off of you now. |
Go Here
and
Go Here
If you want to read a good history of the Electoral College and the arguements for and against it, I very highly recommend reading this. |
talking dirty to me with stuff like that Alan, thanks
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